By Investing.com — Markets are could turn their attention to the US presidential election following a crucial Federal Reserve interest rate decision this week, according to analysts at Citi.
Recent polls suggest that the race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican rival Donald Trump is close following a closely-watched debate last week.
The two sparred over a variety of issues during the fiery exchange, clashing on everything from immigration to the economy.
On Tuesday, USA Today reported that a trio of its polls conducted with Suffolk University after the event found that Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania.
ABC News also reported that its separate poll in conjunction with Ipsos showed that Americans broadly declared Harris the winner of the debate, although the network said that voter preferences had not shifted meaningfully. ABC added that pop star Taylor Swift’s post-debate endorsement of Harris had little impact on whether voters will back the vice president’s bid for the White House.
“For markets, the main takeaway so far is that Harris has so far not seen her debate performance and celebrity endorsements translate into a significant enough lead to comfortably price her as the likely winner,” the Citi analysts said in a note to clients on Monday.
They added that the next phase of the election will likely include an uptick in the frequency of state level surveys, as well as new information like voter registrations, early ballot submissions and campaign polls. Should Harris not see a “material move” higher in this fresh data, the analysts said that this could suggest that the race remains very tight.
They noted that, should this be the case, traders “may once [again] start pricing Trump tariff risks in [foreign exchange], which could see [the US dollar] higher against select currencies.”
Trump has proposed installing a blanket tariff of up to 20% on all imports, as well as additional import taxes of 60% to 100% on goods from China, arguing that it will guard the American economy from foreign competition.
Harris, meanwhile, has said Trump’s plan amounted to a sales tax on everyday goods. However, she acknowledged that current US President Joe Biden has left many tariffs from Trump’s first term in office in place.
