By Investing.com — Shares of Otis Worldwide Corporation (NYSE:OTIS) were down 3% in pre-open trade on Tuesday after the stock was downgraded by Wolfe Research, moving to a “peer perform” rating from an “outperform.”
This change comes in response to a recent rally in OTIS shares, which saw a 15% surge after the announcement of China’s real estate stimulus measures.
Wolfe analysts flagged the potential positive effects of these measures on China’s real estate market, which plays a critical role in shaping sector sentiment. However, they expressed concern about persistent risks to price and margins in 2025.
The rapid appreciation in OTIS shares now positions the stock at 25 times its next 12-month earnings per share estimate.
Wolfe analysts believe this valuation brings the stock closer to fair value, aligning it more with their end-of-2025 target price range of $86 to $125.
They noted that, despite China accounting for only about 14% to 15% of OTIS’s 2024 projected sales and 10% of its EPS, market perceptions around China are a key driver for the stock.
Although China’s stimulus measures could stabilize the depressed real estate market, Wolfe remains cautious.
Recent price declines of over 10% in China, sustained over the past 6 to 9 months, continue to weigh heavily on new equipment margins, which may affect OTIS’s earnings performance in 2025.
Wolfe’s downgrade reflects a more balanced view of the stock’s risk and reward dynamics.
Beyond China, OTIS’s maintenance and repair division is expected to see moderate growth, with analysts projecting around 5% revenue growth in this segment.
However, the outlook for new equipment remains a drag on overall company performance, with Wolfe citing a challenging few quarters ahead.
Despite slight adjustments upward in 2025 estimates due to a stronger Chinese yuan, Wolfe’s forecast remains just below broader market expectations.
At its current valuation, OTIS trades at a slight premium to its sector peers, and Wolfe analysts no longer see enough upside potential to warrant an outperform rating.
They emphasize that while the stimulus in China could yield positive developments, the risks around pricing pressure and margin compression temper their optimism.
