By Raymond James on Monday resumed coverage of Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) with a Strong Buy rating and a price target of $90, highlighting the company’s strong position in the emerging autonomous rideshare space.
Shares in Uber climbed 1% in premarket trading Tuesday.
According to the report, Uber’s partnerships, especially with Waymo, are central to the firm’s “Robo-Ride” thesis, which envisions autonomous vehicles (AVs) playing a key role in Uber’s future operations.
The firm argues that while other competitors, such as Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Full Self-Driving (FSD), may face hurdles in achieving scalable and safe autonomous driving, Uber is well-positioned due to its scale and strategic collaborations.
Analysts at Raymond James are particularly optimistic about Uber’s collaboration with Waymo, noting that this partnership is crucial for maximizing autonomous vehicle utilization. Uber’s vast user base—over 150 million monthly active platform consumers—makes it a strong partner to boost Waymo’s ride volume.
“Waymo currently estimates about four hours of daily vehicle utilization, but with Uber’s demand, this could expand to eight hours, improving operating margins by approximately 20%,” the report states.
The note also underscores that autonomous robotaxis could significantly uplift Uber’s unit economics, with the potential to improve contribution margins by more than 50%.
Moreover, Uber’s core business remains strong, with non-UberX trips up 2x and the Uber One delivery bookings growing significantly.
Raymond James forecasts a 1-2% revenue tailwind from Uber’s participation in Waymo’s autonomous service expansion, given that Uber’s third-party (3P) demand “could improve utilization across various parts of the utilization sine curve,” analysts said.
They hold an optimistic view on Uber’s bookings and EBITDA for 2025, factoring in the net positive impact of Waymo and a less significant impact from Tesla’s robotaxi initiatives.
In the broader context, ride-sharing is projected to account for about 1% of the total U.S. lightweight vehicle miles traveled by 2025. While there was a decline in these miles traveled during the 2007-2008 period, trends such as a growing driver supply, return-to-work, and deflationary pressures from robotaxis could mitigate similar impacts in the future.
